Recent media reports say that India is likely to be deprived of south-west monsoon in 150 years. Reason ? Impact of global warming.India is presently self-sufficient in agricultural production.Gradual failure of monsoon is bound to affect the progress the country.
A study “Weakening of lower tropospheric temperature gradient between Indian landmass and neighbouring oceans and its impact on Indian monsoon” by Mr S M Bawiskar of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology says that
- Temperature Gradient (TG) between Indian landmass and Arabian Sea (TGIA), Bay of Bengal (TGIB) is significantly decreasing in the lower troposphere.
- TG during pre-monsoon (March to May) is reducing at a significant rate of 0.036◦/year in Arabian Sea and by 0.030◦/year in Bay of Bengal.
- There is a possibility of TG tending to zero in the next 150 years.
- Weakening of TG
- is due to increase in rate of warming over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal than that over the Indian landmass.
- is confirmed by reducing number of depressions/cyclonic storms and increasing number of break days during monsoon over India.
- Pre-monsoon TG has significant correlation with All India Seasonal Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR).
Here are the maps from India Meteorological Department on South-West monsoon ‘onset’ and ‘withdrawal’.


