Recent media reports say that India is likely to be deprived of south-west monsoon in 150 years. Reason ? Impact of global warming.India is presently self-sufficient in agricultural production.Gradual failure of monsoon is bound to affect the progress the country.
A study “Weakening of lower tropospheric temperature gradient between Indian landmass and neighbouring oceans and its impact on Indian monsoon” by Mr S M Bawiskar of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology says that
- Temperature Gradient (TG) between Indian landmass and Arabian Sea (TGIA), Bay of Bengal (TGIB) is significantly decreasing in the lower troposphere.
- TG during pre-monsoon (March to May) is reducing at a significant rate of 0.036◦/year in Arabian Sea and by 0.030◦/year in Bay of Bengal.
- There is a possibility of TG tending to zero in the next 150 years.
- Weakening of TG
- is due to increase in rate of warming over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal than that over the Indian landmass.
- is confirmed by reducing number of depressions/cyclonic storms and increasing number of break days during monsoon over India.
- Pre-monsoon TG has significant correlation with All India Seasonal Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR).
Here are the maps from India Meteorological Department on South-West monsoon ‘onset’ and ‘withdrawal’.
Read full report “Weakening of lower tropospheric temperature gradient between Indian landmass and neighbouring oceans and its impact on Indian monsoon” as pdf from Journal of Earth System Science, Vol. 118, No. 4, August 2009.
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